Enhanced network effects and stochastic modelling in generation expansion planning: Insights from an insular power system

Electricity generation capacity expansion is driven by both economic and socio-political realities. Policy makers determine public infrastructural decisions, such as climate and renewable targets, and transmission infrastructure, and the optimal generation capacity expansion follows. Policy makers therefore require planning models that can determine the optimal generation capacity mix in the long run under various scenarios, including policy choices. This work presents a planning model based on linearised alternating current optimal power flow which determines optimal generation capacity expansion and operation, in a least-cost manner, given global and local technical constraints, as well as policy decisions. We apply the model to a test case of the island of Ireland, which has two weakly interconnected systems, high renewable generation targets and low storage and interconnection. We determine the optimal generation expansion and operation out to 2030 considering the effects of increased multi-area interconnection, existing fossil fuel generation phase-out and increased renewable generation targets and carbon prices. Our results find that costs and emissions are driven primarily by the decommissioning of old inefficient generation units. High renewable targets, on the other hand, render increased carbon prices relatively ineffective in reducing system emissions. Furthermore, high renewable generation targets crowd out low-carbon power generation options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). The strategic north-south interconnection has little effect on renewable energy source installations required to achieve renewable power generation targets but does impact on security of supply and the congestion level across the island.     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应，构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应，使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后，本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据，通过空间面板杜宾模型，实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异，以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应，但西部城市财富效应并不显著，并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著，而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后，本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角，为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

制度变迁下国有商业银行农村服务网络演化——以农业银行兰考县支行为例

经济转轨背景下农村的银行服务网络呈现出不同于城市的演化特征。从制度变迁角度建构分析框架,基于历史、调查与访谈数据,以农业银行兰考县支行为例,探讨我国商业银行农村服务网络演化动力机制。研究表明:国有商业银行农村服务网络经历了恢复成立后的快速扩张和密集的人工网点服务,市场化改革中农村业务收缩和大规模网点撤并,到新时期人工、自助、电子、代理等多元服务渠道扩张;农村银行服务网络演化是商业银行和制度环境相互作用的空间过程,普惠金融战略下我国特别强调金融服务的均等化和基础金融网点的全覆盖,商业银行不断借助新的伙伴关系开拓农村市场,其中合作代理日益发挥重要作用。不同地区、不同商业银行农村服务网络模式的差异,农村银行服务网络转型对农村社会经济发展、金融生态环境改善、农民金融素养提升的影响等还需进一步研究。     

湖南省研发投入的空间格局与创新协调发展对策

以湖南省14个市州为研究对象,运用首位度分析、ESDA探索性空间数据分析方法,研究湖南省各市州的研发投入(R&D经费、R&D人员投入)空间差异变化趋势和空间分异特征。结果表明:①湖南省内各市州R&D经费投入差距在逐渐缩小,但R&D人员投入差距在逐渐增大;②湖南省的R&D经费及R&D人员投入在各个市州之间存在明显的空间依赖及空间集聚现象,并在西部、南部周边市州呈现出大面积的低水平连片聚集特征;③湖南省R&D投入的空间演变特征并不显著,长株潭作为省会中心城市圈缺乏辐射带动力。研究最后提出了湖南省科技创新协同发展的对策建议。     

基于数字足迹的乡村旅游流空间结构特征--以浙江省湖州市为例

乡村旅游是乡村振兴的有效路径,也是近年来研究热点,而在乡村旅游流领域研究相对不足。以湖州乡村旅游地为案例,通过对大样本数字足迹的数据处理,分析乡村旅游流空间结构特征,总结空间行为偏好。结果表明:①乡村旅游数字足迹呈现全年双峰值、月度差异不大的时间特征,"双核"多组团的空间分布特征,以及古镇、古村、民宿等带有文化符号旅游景观导向的空间偏好特征;②网络密度0.27的乡村旅游流空间结构由连接度高的34个节点构成,除核心吸引的双核外,民宿集聚区构成了网络结构的核心点;③传统旅游吸引物、民宿集聚区等节点呈现较强的网络中心性,节点的网络结构特征反映乡村旅游流空间呈现的地理临近性,以及区域空间集聚、扩散与联动发展效应。依据研究结论提出"完善与发挥节点集聚扩散功能,增强节点对数字足迹的有效吸引力,提升乡村旅游经济发展质量,助力乡村振兴"的发展策略。     

省级区域规划实施评估方法和机制探究

省级区域规划是国家和地方发展和空间规划体系中的重要组成部分。在我国建立更加有效的区域协调发展新机制的实践中,探究我国省级区域规划实施评估中存在的问题,研究和建立更加有效的省级区域规划实施评估的内容、方法和机制,对于进一步落实好省级政府的责任和义务,更好全面、有效实施好省级区域规划具有重要推动作用。文章提出了我国省级区域规划实施评估存在的问题、评估的方法、评估的内容和指标体系,并提出了具体建立更加有效的省级区域规划实施评估机制的建议和设想。     

CEO age and tax planning

This study investigates the association between CEO age and corporate tax planning. Using a sample of 11,537 firm‐year observations from the fiscal year 1997–2013, I find CEO age exerts an economically significant influence on firms’ tax policies, incremental to economic determinants identified in prior research. Specifically, CEO age is positively related to cash and GAAP effective tax rates, and negatively related to permanent book‐tax difference, suggesting that older CEOs are less likely to take actions to lower tax burden. The results hold across different model specifications and robustness tests to address potential bias arising from endogeneity, sample selection issue, and the confounding effect of CEO tenure.     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

How Does Using a Mobile Device Change Investors’ Reactions to Firm Disclosures?

I examine how characteristics of investors’ information access tools change investors’ reactions to firm disclosures. I examine my research question in the context of information choice (i.e., allowing investors to choose the order of information and sections to read within a disclosure) and spatial layout (i.e., how information is displayed when viewing the disclosure). Results of an experiment are consistent with information choice improving investors’ judgments if the disclosure is viewed on a computer screen. Conversely, and consistent with cognitive overload, information choice harms investors’ judgments if the disclosure is viewed on a smaller screen, such as that of a mobile device. Follow-up experiments show that changing the disclosure presentation to reduce the need to scroll is one way to improve investors’ judgments on a smaller (or mobile) screen. My findings caution firms and regulators about expanding information choice within disclosures without considering the screen size used to access the disclosure.     

Aggregate and distributional impacts of China’s household responsibility system

It is 40 years since China started to abandon collective farming, with initial rural reforms in 1978 that culminated in adoption of the household responsibility system (HRS). Existing studies of impacts of these reforms do not consider nonrandom spread of the HRS, spillovers from early adopters, or distributional effects. In this paper, the synthetic control method and spatial autoregressive panel models with autoregressive errors are used to estimate impacts of the HRS that account for these features. The HRS had a significant positive effect on grain output and food supply in China, while also helping to reduce regional inequality.